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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt">The <a href="http://wici.ca/new/">
Waterloo Institute for Complexity and Innovation</a> presents a lecture by Professor Blake LeBaron, Brandis University:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt">Self-Generating Economic Forecast Heterogeneity<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt">Analysis of complex systems force us into a deeper understanding of heterogeneity. In economics and finance this heterogeneity often appears in the form of individual forecasts. This talk will demonstrate
how a simulated agent-based financial market generates, at times magnifies, the dispersion in individual forecasts. The results are compared with data from several individual survey forecasts along with information on trading volume. Since agent-based models'
key feature is their ability to generate heterogeneity, then testing them against individual forecasting data is crucial. Finally, the connection of heterogeneity to overall price dynamics and system stability (bubbles and crashes) will be discussed both for
financial markets, and other aspects of the macro economy.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt">JANUARY 24, 2017 | 2:30 PM | Quantum Nano Centre 1501</span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt">For more information, visit: <a href="http://wici.ca/new/2016/11/wici-talk-blake-lebaron-self-generating-economic-forecast-heterogeneity/">
http://wici.ca/new/2016/11/wici-talk-blake-lebaron-self-generating-economic-forecast-heterogeneity/</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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