Philosophy Colloquium - Scientific and Technological Literacy Series - March 3 and March 4, 2011

[Vicki Brett]

The second Department of Philosophy Colloquium/Scientific and 
Technological Literacy Series talk will be this coming Friday,
March 4, 2011 at 3:30 p.m. in HH 373 : Heather Douglas, University of 
Tennessee, "How to Weigh Evidence". The abstract is pasted below and a 
poster is attached.

Thank you,
Vicki

"How to Weigh Evidence"
Heather Douglas
University of Tennessee

This talk will address how to weigh complex sets of evidence, from 
multiple disciplines, that are often divergent in their 
implications.Weight of evidence in this context means assessing “where 
the weight of evidence lies,” rather than how much one piece of evidence 
supports a particular hypothesis in traditional confirmation theory.How 
to perform such assessments is crucial to the optimal use of science in 
public policy, but remains contested.I will argue that explanations are 
central to weight of evidence efforts, and that explicating and then 
utilizing explanations (particularly to make novel predictions) can make 
weight of evidence efforts rigorous, while remaining sufficiently 
flexible.Without explanations, it would be unclear what the set of 
evidence to be weighed should be.With explanations, we can see both why 
competing experts weigh the evidence differently, and how we might 
settle disputes concerning where the weight of evidence lies.Finally, 
taking explanations as the central conceptual tool in weight of evidence 
analysis allows us to see where more formal techniques, like causal nets 
or expert elicitation, fit in the process.

-- 
Vicki Brett
Undergraduate Coordinator
Philosophy Department
University of Waterloo
vbrett at uwaterloo.ca
519-888-4567 x32449 (HH 365)

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