[Hopespringpcsg] FW: [PPML] incidence of high risk PCa increases dramatically

[Glen Tolhurst]

Hi all:
Further to the recent note on this topic, below is a link to  a chart showing the numbers.
Makes it clearer.
Thx.
Glen


The report uses the term "annual incidence."  Normally, this means "annual incidence in the general population."  However, in this report, it usually means "annual incidence among those diagnosed with prostate cancer."  This is shown by the fact that the annual percentages in each category add up to 100%.

The report should have included and discussed a chart that takes the above into consideration.  I've created such a chart and have posted it at-- http://margrover.com/PCaStageAtDiagnosis2004-2013.png

Further, the original article (
http://www.nature.com/pcan/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/pcan201630a.html ) asserts that "Relative to 2004, the annual incidence of all prostate cancer did not change significantly over time."

So the 100% line in the above chart is also essentially a measure of the absolute numbers of the newly diagnosed.

One of the things evident in this chart is that the decline in the absolute numbers of new low-risk patients is in step with an increase in the absolute numbers of new patients in the other categories combined.

I'm not a statistician, but I'll hazard the cause: Standards became stricter (and/or equipment more sensitive) so that fewer cancers were declared low risk.. (This assumes that the male population in the U.S. 
did not suddenly get healthier during and immediately before the study
period.)