Lecture: Self-Generating Economic Forecast Heterogeneity

[Wendy Philpott]

The Waterloo Institute for Complexity and Innovation<http://wici.ca/new/> presents a lecture by Professor Blake LeBaron, Brandis University:

Self-Generating Economic Forecast Heterogeneity

Analysis of complex systems force us into a deeper understanding of heterogeneity. In economics and finance this heterogeneity often appears in the form of individual forecasts. This talk will demonstrate how a simulated agent-based financial market generates, at times magnifies, the dispersion in individual forecasts. The results are compared with data from several individual survey forecasts along with information on trading volume. Since agent-based models' key feature is their ability to generate heterogeneity, then testing them against individual forecasting data is crucial. Finally, the connection of heterogeneity to overall price dynamics and system stability (bubbles and crashes) will be discussed both for financial markets, and other aspects of the macro economy.

JANUARY 24, 2017 | 2:30 PM | Quantum Nano Centre 1501

For more information, visit: http://wici.ca/new/2016/11/wici-talk-blake-lebaron-self-generating-economic-forecast-heterogeneity/

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